Armed to the teeth with the ability to replenish ships, troops and supplies at rapid speed, the Dominion were a force to be reckoned with who were systematically crushing their opposition. The Jem’Hadar were taking their fair share of losses, but any soldier lost could be replaced by another batch of clones and with a huge amount of planets in servitude to the Dominion combined with a sharp focus of genetically engineered talents, there were always spare resources to replenish and push back.
It was a dire situation for the Federation. Waves of fleets would be lost in battle, boots on the ground were struggling to hold the line and even with the Klingons vast resources and more battle-ready way of life, it just wasn’t enough to push back hard enough against the invading Dominion. Not until another large nation joined the war when the Romulan Star Empire decided to stop being cautious observers pledging peace to whoever came out victorious and became a vital turning point in the war.
What swayed them was the death of Senator Vreenak; a key political figure who died in transit from a secret meeting who it turned out was carrying evidence of a Dominion plot to take advantage of Romulus’ passive attitude to the war and invade their Empire. A Senator assassinated while bringing home a recording of Dominion officials planning an invasion was more than enough motive for the Empire to join the Federation and the Klingons in a historic alliance to protect their territory and their future.
There was just one problem. The recording was a fake.
Frustrated and disheartened by the daily losses, Captain Sisko worked with former Obsidian Order agent Garak to manufacture the evidence. Twisting the laws and bending every rule, Sisko and Garak worked in secret with Starfleets approval to bring a criminal forger to create the recording and place it on a one-time use collinear rod manufactured exclusively on Cardassia for official logs. As far as Sisko knew, the plan was for Vreenak to present the evidence to the Romulan Empire, but when he discovered enough inaccuracies for it to be a fake, leaving the station furious, Garak sabotaged his ship to cover any doubts Vreenak had and build enough of a case for the Romulans to make the change. And those inaccuracies? Blame the explosion causing data corruption.
It was a gamble Sisko was furious about, but one that paid off. But what if it went wrong? Either from Vreenak surviving to tell the Romulans the truth, or the Romulans leaning into cautious over emotional response and spending more time analysing the data rod?
The Romulans and the Federation have a long history together. It was in the formative years of the Federation that the Earth-Romulan war kicked off with rippled effects lasting centuries including their re-emergence during the 23rd century and dominance in the early 24th which led to the stronger bonds between Starfleet and the Klingons. The Romulan Empire were suspicious of everything, had the power and reach to manipulate their will across the Quadrant and of course, were a powerful enemy with their own vast territories. With only joining the war as they saw a dangerous enemy in common, one that was a bigger risk to have as neighbours then the devil they knew, if the Romulans discovered as their Senator did that the evidence was a forgery, things would have likely been very different for Captain Sisko.
Always looking for an excuse to revive their war with the Federation, the Empire would have seen the data rod as the manipulation it was and it wouldn’t take a Julian Bashir to find out who was responsible. At this stage in the war, the Dominion are already collecting allies in the Alpha Quadrant to expand their reach. First the Cardassians, who are the home base of the Dominion outside the Gamma Quadrant, and eventually the Breen would be promised territories to fight on their side.
Discovering the Federation were plotting to manipulate them wouldn’t sit well with the Cardassians and would give them Senate all the excuses they needed to drop the non aggression pact for a partnership against their old enemies.
Throwing Warbirds and the Tal Shiar into the equation, the Federation and the Klingons would have no chance of survival even before the Bren got involved. On the promise of controlling Earth or Vulcan territories, the Romulans could be bargained into sharing sources they often keep to themselves. Warbirds carrying Jem’Hadar troops could overrun colonies and planets swiftly. Jem’Hadar ships equip with cloaking devices would cause even heavier losses on the already struggling Alliance.
Even in a best case scenario, if Damar’s rebellion still managed to form with the Dominion on the rise, the Tal Shiar would squash it before they could assert any influence. The Klingons may continue to fight, causing losses too heavy for the more influential houses to maintain and the Federation? Surrender may be only way to survive; just as the Jack Pack predicted in Stastistical Probabilities.
What if the Romulans learned the truth about Sisko’s deception?
In the long run, Voyager’s return home might not quite be a celebration as it was a revival, akin to Discovery’s third season. Perhaps instead of us going back to prequels, we’d see a new Star trek where the Federation is the underdog fighting to unite the galaxy against the new Dominion? Whatever the long run, it’d likely be a very, very short war that would lead to a much more depressing ending for the crew of Deep Space Nine.
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